Probable Exposure Explained

Probable Exposure represents the maximum financial liability that must be reserved to fulfill all contractual obligations offered within a given agreement. This figure establishes the upper threshold of potential payout based on contracted terms and projected volume commitments.

Calculation Methodology:

The probable exposure is calculated using the following formula: Probable Exposure = Contracted Rate × Estimated Purchase Quantity

Illustrative Example:

Consider a contract offering $2.00 per case with an estimated quantity of 100 cases:

Important Considerations:

It is crucial to understand that probable exposure represents a financial reserve requirement, not a guaranteed expenditure. Actual payout may vary significantly based on:

Under-performance: The contractee may purchase only 50 cases, resulting in an actual payout of $100.00 Over-performance: The contractee may exceed projections and purchase 200 cases, resulting in an actual payout of $400.00

Probable Exposure Calculation Scenarios

The following scenarios demonstrate various methodologies for calculating probable exposure based on different contract structures and pricing mechanisms.

Scenario 1: Direct Fixed Rate Rebate

Scenario 2: Deviated Fixed Rate (Distributor Channel)

Scenario 3: Deviated Fixed Price Structure

Scenario 4: Deviated Percentage-Based Rebate

Probable Exposure and Stacked Data

The probable exposure displays on the Exposure Tab of a contract.

To Generate Exposure for a contract, click the Generate button.

There are 2 different popups that appear to generate exposure – the size of the contract determines which Generate Exposure popup displays.

The Generate Exposure popup below displays on smaller contract where there are not a lot of companies on the contract.

The Generate Exposure contract popup below is presented where there are a significant number of companies on the contract. The count of companies to select varies by contract.

Eligible Distributor Companies Selection

Stacked Exposure Configuration

Actuals Companies Limitation

IMPORTANT NOTES ABOUT ESTIMATED QUANTITY AND EXPOSURE WHEN LIMITING BY COMPANIES

Exposure Calculation Methodology Based on Company Selection Parameters

Scenario A: Universal Company Selection (No Limitations Applied)

Scenario B: Selective Company Limitation (Filtered Selection)

Business Impact: The selection methodology directly influences exposure calculations and financial projections. Universal selection provides comprehensive risk assessment, while selective limitation offers focused analysis based on strategic partnerships or proven performance metrics.

Illustrative Example: Contract Configuration:

  1. Sysco Albany
  2. US Foods Metro NY

Unrestricted Exposure Calculation Methodology

When exposure analysis is executed without company-specific limitations or historical claims filtering, the system applies a proportional distribution model for deviated exposure calculations.

Process Overview:

Operational Impact: This methodology ensures comprehensive exposure assessment by incorporating the full distribution network capacity, providing a complete financial risk profile that reflects maximum potential contract utilization across all authorized channels.

Business Application: The proportional distribution approach supports strategic planning by presenting exposure scenarios that account for full network engagement, enabling more robust financial forecasting and risk management protocols.

Restricted Exposure Calculation and Data Interpretation Methodology for Limited Company Selection: When exposure calculations are constrained to specific distributors or entities with documented transaction history, the system applies the complete estimated volume exclusively to the selected subset of companies.

Calculation Process:

Data Accuracy and Interpretation Considerations:

Business Implications: This methodology provides focused analysis capabilities while requiring careful interpretation of location-specific metrics. Users must recognize that individual distributor exposure figures represent concentrated scenarios rather than realistic distribution patterns when multiple authorized partners exist within the contract framework.

Recommendation: Utilize this feature for targeted analysis while maintaining awareness of the concentrated allocation impact on individual distributor projections.

Important System Behavior Notice

Actuals Data Display Protocol: When users apply company-specific filtering to view probable exposure calculations, the system maintains comprehensive data integrity by automatically redirecting excluded distributor information to designated overflow sections.

Technical Process:

Business Impact: This functionality prevents data loss while enabling focused analysis. Users can examine targeted distributor performance while maintaining access to complete contract activity through the overflow interface.

User Guidance: Review the Product/Lumpsum Overflow tab when utilizing company-specific filtering to ensure comprehensive understanding of total contract performance and avoid overlooking significant transactional data from non-displayed distributors.

Summary

Displays the Exposure, Actuals and Remaining Amounts.

Contract Financial Analysis Dashboard Overview

Exposure Analysis Section This module provides comprehensive breakdown of contractual financial obligations across three primary categories:

Actuals Performance Section This module presents actual disbursements processed under the current contract version, categorized as follows:

  1. Product Overflow: Payments processed for products not included in current contract version (e.g., ineligible SKUs, discontinued products from previous amendments)
  2. Lumpsum Overflow: Payments for events or lumpsums not authorized under current contract terms (e.g., ineligible promotional events)

Financial Summary Metrics:

Remaining Balance Analysis Section This module calculates outstanding financial obligations through variance analysis:

Additional Navigation: Multiple specialized tabs are available within the Exposure interface for detailed analysis and reporting capabilities.

Contractee Exposure

Stacked Exposure Analysis Tab

This interface provides comprehensive financial projection analysis, encompassing both current contract obligations and consolidated multi-contract exposure assessments.

Primary Functions:

Current Contract Projections:

Multi-Contract Stacked Analysis:

Business Application: This functionality supports strategic financial planning by providing visibility into total potential exposure across all active contractual relationships, ensuring accurate budget allocation and risk management for scenarios involving concurrent contract obligations with shared timeframes.

Value Proposition: Enables stakeholders to assess cumulative financial exposure and avoid under-budgeting scenarios that may arise from overlapping contractual commitments.

Contract Analysis Interface: Field Definitions and Functionality

Entity Identification Fields

Company Name and Company Number

Product Name and Product Number

Unit of Measure (UOM) Description

Financial Calculation Fields

This Contract Direct Rate

This Contract Estimated Quantity

  1. Product Grouping: Contract volume divided equally among constituent products (e.g., 100 units ÷ 4 products = 25 units per product)
  2. Company Grouping: Contract volume divided equally among member companies
  3. Combined Groupings: Contract volume divided by both company count and product count for proportional allocation

This Contract Estimated Spend

Comparative Analysis Fields

Other Contract(s) Direct Rate

Other Operator Contract(s) Rate

Total Stacked Direct Rate

Total Stacked Estimated Spend

Total Claim Amount

Analytical Benefits: These metrics collectively provide stakeholders with comprehensive visibility into both projected and actual financial performance, enabling informed decision-making regarding contract optimization, budget allocation, and risk management across complex multi-contract environments.

Distributor Exposure

Displays information by Eligible Distributor and Product.

Distributor Contract Analysis Interface: Field Definitions and Functionality

Entity and Product Identification Fields

Company Name and Company Number

Product Name and Product Number

Unit of Measure (UOM) Description

Financial Analysis and Calculation Fields

This Contract Deviated Rate

This Contract Estimated Quantity

Product Grouping Distribution:

  1. Logic: Contract volume divided proportionally among constituent products
  2. Example: 100-unit grouping ÷ 4 products = 25 units per individual product line

Company Grouping Distribution:

Combined Grouping Distribution:

This Contract Estimated Spend

Comparative Contract Analysis

Other Contract(s) Deviated Rate

Total Stacked Deviated Rate

Total Stacked Estimated Spend

Total Claim Amount

Strategic Benefits: These metrics collectively provide stakeholders with comprehensive visibility into distributor-specific financial performance, enabling informed decision-making regarding distribution strategy optimization, budget allocation, and risk management across complex multi-contract distributor environments. This analysis supports enhanced distributor relationship management and strategic partnership development.

Lumpsum Exposure

Displays Contract Lumpsum information.

Lumpsum Description: lumpsum description defined on the contract version.

Lumpsum Code: lumpsum code defined on the contract version.

Contract Lumpsum Description: contract’s lumpsum descriptions defined on the contract version.

Event Start and End Date: dates defined for the lumpsum.

Total Estimated Spend: amount defined on the contract for the lumpsum.

Total Claim Amount: displays the amount claimed for the lumpsum row. Clicking the hyperlink will open a popup displaying the claim information.

Product Actuals Overflow

Displays information on products which were paid on the contract but are not defined on the current contract version.

Examples:

Ineligible Skus overridden and paid

Products which were on the contract as part of a product grouping, but are no longer part of that product grouping.

Products which were on the contract when the claim was paid, but the contract has since been amended and that product was removed.

Company Name and Company Number: displays the company information pertaining to the claimant of the overflow product row.

Product Name and Product Number: displays the product information of the item which was claimed and paid on the contract version, but is not a product on the contract.

Total Claim Amount: the amount paid for that product. Clicking the hyperlink will open a popup window displaying the claim information.

Lumpsum Actuals Overflow

Displays information on lumpsums which were paid on the contract but are not defined on the current contract version.

Examples:

Ineligible lumpsum events which were overridden and paid.

Lumpsums which were on the contract when the claim was paid, but the contract was amended and that lumpsum is no longer defined on the current version of the contract.

Lumpsum Description and Lumpsum Code: displays the lumpsum information for lumpsums which are not defined on the contract.

Total Claim Amount: displays the amount paid for the lumpsum. Clicking the hyperlink will open a popup displaying the claim information.

Reports

There are 2 options available related to probable exposure and stacked reporting.

Probable vs Actuals: this report displays the contract and claim information in report format.

To view the report, click the report button.

Then select an export type and decide to either show (un-check) or hide (check) the Claimant Info and click the Generate report. Once the report has generated, click the hyperlink in the Generated Reports section.

Excel Export: The export displays a sheet per tab. The export will limit the data if there are any filters on any of the columns so be sure to clear filters prior to opening the export.