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probable_exposure_explained [2024/08/06 17:49] – tina.robles | probable_exposure_explained [2025/06/13 18:48] (current) – tina.robles | ||
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__**Probable Exposure Explained**__ | __**Probable Exposure Explained**__ | ||
- | Probable Exposure | + | Probable Exposure |
- | Here's how it works: | + | **Calculation Methodology:** |
+ | |||
+ | The probable exposure is calculated using the following formula: **Probable Exposure = Contracted Rate × Estimated Purchase Quantity** | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | **Illustrative Example: | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | Consider a contract offering $2.00 per case with an estimated quantity of 100 cases: | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Contracted Rate: $2.00/ | ||
+ | * Estimated Quantity: 100 cases | ||
+ | * Probable Exposure: $200.00 (100 cases × $2.00/ | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Important Considerations: | ||
+ | |||
+ | It is crucial to understand that probable exposure represents a financial reserve requirement, | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Under-performance: | ||
+ | **Over-performance: | ||
- | We'll use this screenshot as the example. | ||
{{: | {{: | ||
- | Scenario 1: Direct Fixed Rate - estimated | + | **Probable Exposure Calculation Scenarios** |
+ | |||
+ | The following scenarios demonstrate various methodologies for calculating probable exposure based on different contract structures and pricing mechanisms. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ________________________________________ | ||
+ | **Scenario 1: Direct Fixed Rate Rebate** | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Structure: Direct rebate payment to customer | ||
+ | * Estimated Volume: 500 cases | ||
+ | * Rebate Rate: $2.15 per case | ||
+ | * Calculation: | ||
+ | * Application: | ||
+ | ________________________________________ | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Scenario 2: Deviated Fixed Rate (Distributor Channel)** | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Structure: Fixed rate rebate processed through distributor network | ||
+ | * Estimated Volume: 500 cases | ||
+ | * Rebate Rate: $2.00 per case | ||
+ | * Calculation: | ||
+ | * Application: | ||
+ | ________________________________________ | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Scenario 3: Deviated Fixed Price Structure** | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Structure: Fixed pricing with variance-based rebate calculation | ||
+ | * Default Product Price: $12.34 per case | ||
+ | * Contract Fixed Price: $11.00 per case | ||
+ | * Price Differential: | ||
+ | * Estimated Volume: 500 cases | ||
+ | * Calculation: | ||
+ | * Application: | ||
+ | ________________________________________ | ||
- | Scenario | + | **Scenario |
- | Scenario 3: Deviated Fixed Price. | + | * Structure: Percentage-based rebate calculation |
+ | * Default Product Price: | ||
+ | * Rebate Percentage: 10.00% | ||
+ | * Per-Case Rebate: | ||
+ | * Estimated Volume: 500 cases | ||
+ | * Calculation: | ||
+ | * Application: | ||
- | Scenario 4: Deviated Percent. | ||
----- | ----- | ||
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- | __Eligible | + | **Eligible |
- | __Stacked Enabled:__ checking this box will generate Stacked Exposure as well as the Probable Exposure. | + | * Function: Distributor filtering and selection interface |
+ | * Operation: Click to select individual distributor entities from the available list | ||
+ | * Multi-Selection: | ||
+ | * Impact: Selected distributors | ||
+ | * Purpose: Enables targeted analysis by limiting data scope to relevant distribution partners | ||
- | __Limit | + | **Stacked Exposure Configuration** |
+ | |||
+ | * Function: Dual exposure calculation methodology | ||
+ | * Enabled State: Generates both Stacked Exposure and Probable Exposure calculations simultaneously | ||
+ | * Disabled State: Produces Probable Exposure calculations exclusively | ||
+ | * Application: | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Actuals Companies | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Function: Historical claims-based filtering mechanism | ||
+ | * Enabled State: Restricts displayed | ||
+ | * Purpose: Focuses analysis on distributors with established transactional relationships | ||
+ | * Benefit: Eliminates inactive or non-participating entities from exposure calculations, | ||
----- | ----- | ||
**IMPORTANT NOTES ABOUT ESTIMATED QUANTITY AND EXPOSURE WHEN LIMITING BY COMPANIES** | **IMPORTANT NOTES ABOUT ESTIMATED QUANTITY AND EXPOSURE WHEN LIMITING BY COMPANIES** | ||
- | If all companies | + | **Exposure Calculation Methodology Based on Company Selection Parameters** |
- | + | ||
- | If the exposure | + | **Scenario A: Universal Company Selection (No Limitations Applied)** |
+ | |||
+ | * Configuration: | ||
+ | * Calculation Method: Estimated quantities are proportionally distributed across | ||
+ | * Scope: Complete distributor network inclusion in exposure | ||
+ | * Result: Maximum potential | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Scenario B: Selective Company Limitation (Filtered Selection)** | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Configuration: | ||
+ | * Calculation Method: Estimated quantities apply exclusively to the filtered | ||
+ | * Scope: Limited distributor participation based on selection criteria | ||
+ | * Result: Reduced exposure calculation reflecting targeted distribution strategy or historical performance data | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Business Impact:** The selection methodology directly influences exposure calculations and financial projections. Universal selection provides comprehensive risk assessment, while selective limitation offers focused analysis based on strategic partnerships or proven performance metrics. | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Illustrative Example: Contract Configuration: | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Product Portfolio: Two distinct | ||
+ | * Authorized Distribution Network: Two qualified | ||
+ | - Sysco Albany | ||
+ | - US Foods Metro NY | ||
+ | * Application: | ||
- | Example: | ||
- | A Contract is set up with the following 2 products at the rate and estimated quantity listed. | ||
{{: | {{: | ||
- | If exposure is run without | + | **Unrestricted Exposure Calculation Methodology** |
+ | |||
+ | When exposure | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Process Overview: | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Input: Total estimated quantity per product line | ||
+ | * Distribution Method: Proportional allocation across all authorized distributors within | ||
+ | * Output: Deviated exposure values distributed equally among eligible distribution partners | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Operational Impact:** This methodology ensures comprehensive exposure assessment by incorporating the full distribution network capacity, providing a complete financial risk profile that reflects maximum potential contract utilization across all authorized channels. | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Business Application: | ||
{{: | {{: | ||
- | However, if the contract | + | **Restricted Exposure Calculation and Data Interpretation** |
+ | ** | ||
+ | Methodology for Limited Company Selection: | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Calculation Process: | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Volume Application: | ||
+ | * Distribution Logic: Selected companies receive the full volume allocation rather than proportional distribution | ||
+ | * Example Scenario: When analysis is limited to Sysco Albany, the entire estimated | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Data Accuracy and Interpretation Considerations: | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Aggregate Exposure: Total probable exposure | ||
+ | * Location-Specific Metrics: Individual distributor | ||
+ | * Root Cause: Volume concentration occurs because excluded | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Business Implications: | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Recommendation: | ||
{{: | {{: | ||
- | **NOTE** – if the user selects companies | + | **Important System Behavior Notice** |
+ | |||
+ | **Actuals Data Display Protocol:** When users apply company-specific filtering | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Technical Process: | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Selected Companies: Display within standard exposure calculation grids | ||
+ | * Non-Selected Companies with Transaction History: Automatically populate | ||
+ | * Data Preservation: | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Business Impact:** This functionality prevents data loss while enabling focused analysis. Users can examine targeted distributor performance while maintaining access to complete contract activity through | ||
+ | |||
+ | **User Guidance:** Review the Product/ | ||
+ | |||
----- | ----- | ||
**Summary** | **Summary** | ||
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{{: | {{: | ||
- | __Exposure__: | + | **Contract Financial Analysis Dashboard Overview** |
- | __Actuals__: | + | **Exposure Analysis Section** |
- | __Remaining__: This section | + | * Product Direct Exposure: Direct product-related financial commitments |
+ | * Product Deviated Exposure: Distributor-mediated product obligations | ||
+ | * Lumpsum Exposure: Fixed payment commitments | ||
+ | * Total Probable Exposure: Aggregate sum of all contractual financial obligations displayed at section | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Actuals Performance Section** This module presents actual disbursements processed under the current contract version, categorized as follows: | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Product Direct Actuals: Direct product payments executed | ||
+ | * Product Deviated Actuals: Distributor-channel payments processed | ||
+ | * Lumpsum Actuals: Fixed payment disbursements completed | ||
+ | * Overflow Components: | ||
+ | - Product Overflow: Payments processed for products not included in current contract version (e.g., ineligible SKUs, discontinued products from previous amendments) | ||
+ | - Lumpsum Overflow: Payments for events or lumpsums not authorized under current contract terms (e.g., ineligible promotional events) | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Financial Summary Metrics: | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Contract | ||
+ | * Contract Total Actuals: Comprehensive sum of all payments processed under this contract version, including overflow items | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Remaining | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Contract Remaining: Difference between authorized | ||
+ | * Contract Total Remaining: Comprehensive variance including all exposure minus total actuals | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Additional Navigation: | ||
- | Note that there are several different tabs with the Exposure tab: | ||
{{: | {{: | ||
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**Contractee Exposure** | **Contractee Exposure** | ||
- | This tab displays the estimated | + | **Stacked Exposure Analysis Tab** |
+ | |||
+ | This interface provides comprehensive financial projection analysis, encompassing both current contract obligations and consolidated multi-contract exposure assessments. | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Primary Functions: | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Current Contract Projections: | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Displays | ||
+ | * Provides baseline financial planning metrics | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Multi-Contract Stacked Analysis: | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Presents consolidated exposure reporting across multiple concurrent | ||
+ | * Identifies | ||
+ | * Enables comprehensive risk assessment when multiple contractual obligations exist simultaneously | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Business Application: | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Value Proposition: | ||
{{: | {{: | ||
- | __Company Name and Company Number__: displays the company name and number of the contractee. | + | **Contract Analysis Interface: Field Definitions |
- | __Product Name and Product Number__: displays the product name and number for products listed on the contract as well as other products listed on other contracts for the contractee and timeframe. | + | **Entity Identification Fields** |
- | __UOM Description__: | + | **Company Name and Company Number** |
- | __This Contract Direct Rate__: the direct rate per product. | + | * Function: Displays contractee identification and organizational structure |
+ | * Group Handling: When contractee represents a company grouping, | ||
+ | * Purpose: Provides comprehensive visibility into contractual relationships | ||
- | __This Contract Estimated Quantity__: the estimated quantity per product. | + | **Product Name and Product Number** |
- | __Estimated Quantity for Product Grouping__: If a product | + | * Function: Displays |
+ | * Scope: Includes products from current contract plus additional products from other active contracts within overlapping timeframes | ||
+ | * Group Handling: When products are defined | ||
- | __Estimated Quantity for Company Grouping__: If the contractee is a company grouping, the estimated volume will display as the value entered on the contract divided by the count of companies in the grouping. | + | **Unit |
- | __Estimated Quantity for Both Product Grouping and Company Grouping__: If the contractee is a company grouping and there are product | + | * Function: Specifies |
+ | ________________________________________ | ||
- | __This | + | **Financial Calculation Fields** |
+ | |||
+ | **This | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Function: Displays standardized per-unit rate for current contract products | ||
+ | * Rate Conversion: Automatically converts fixed price and percentage-based pricing to equivalent rates | ||
+ | * Distributor Pricing Logic: For distributor contracts with percentage or fixed pricing, rates are calculated using hierarchical data sources (default price, sales data, or company/product-specific pricing) as configured in manufacturer client settings | ||
+ | |||
+ | **This Contract Estimated Quantity** | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Function: Projected volume per product line | ||
+ | * Calculation Methodology: | ||
+ | - Product Grouping: Contract volume divided equally among constituent products (e.g., 100 units ÷ 4 products = 25 units per product) | ||
+ | - Company Grouping: Contract volume divided equally among member companies | ||
+ | - Combined Groupings: Contract volume divided by both company count and product count for proportional allocation | ||
+ | |||
+ | **This Contract Estimated Spend** | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Formula: Direct Rate × Estimated Quantity | ||
+ | * Purpose: Provides projected financial commitment per product line | ||
+ | ________________________________________ | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Comparative Analysis Fields** | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Other Contract(s) Direct Rate** | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Function: Aggregated rates from concurrent claimable contracts for identical contractee, timeframe, and product combinations | ||
+ | * Operator Enhancement: | ||
+ | * Interactive Feature: Hyperlink access to detailed contract version information popup | ||
+ | * Rate Standardization: | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Other Operator Contract(s) Rate** | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Function: Maximum rate identification for distributor contractees | ||
+ | * Application: | ||
+ | * Interactive Feature: Hyperlink access to detailed operator contract version information popup | ||
+ | * Rate Standardization: | ||
- | __Other Contract(s) Direct Rate__: displays a sum of all rates for other claimable contracts for the same contractee, timeframe and product. | ||
- | __Other Operator Contract(s) Rate__: in the instance the contractee is a distributor, | ||
{{: | {{: | ||
- | __Total | + | **Total |
+ | |||
+ | * Calculation: Aggregate | ||
+ | * Purpose: Provides comprehensive rate analysis across all concurrent contractual obligations | ||
+ | * Business Application: | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Total Stacked Estimated Spend** | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Formula: This Contract Estimated Quantity × Total Stacked Direct Rate | ||
+ | * Financial Significance: | ||
+ | * Strategic Value: Facilitates comprehensive budget planning and risk assessment for multi-contract scenarios | ||
+ | * Risk Management: Identifies total financial commitment potential when multiple contractual relationships exist simultaneously | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Total Claim Amount** | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Function: Displays aggregate disbursements processed for the specific SKU under current contract version | ||
+ | * Data Source: Historical payment records and processed claims | ||
+ | * Interactive Feature: Hyperlink provides detailed claim transaction history and supporting documentation | ||
+ | * Performance Tracking: Enables comparison between projected spend and actual financial performance | ||
+ | * Audit Trail: Maintains comprehensive record of all financial transactions associated with the product | ||
- | __Total Stacked Estimated Spend__: formula of This Contract Estimated Quantity | + | **Analytical Benefits:** These metrics collectively provide stakeholders with comprehensive visibility into both projected and actual financial performance, |
- | __Total Claim Amount__: displays a sum of dollars on how much has been paid out to the sku for this contract version. | ||
{{: | {{: | ||
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{{: | {{: | ||
- | __Company Name and Company Number__: displays the company name and number of the eligible distributors listed on the contract. | + | **Distributor Contract Analysis Interface: Field Definitions |
- | __Product Name and Product | + | **Entity |
- | __UOM Description__: | + | **Company Name and Company Number** |
- | __This Contract Deviated Rate__: the direct rate per product. | + | * Function: Displays identification details for authorized distributors specified within |
+ | * Group Structure Handling: When distributor represents a company grouping, | ||
+ | * Purpose: Provides comprehensive visibility into distribution network partnerships | ||
- | __This Contract Estimated Quantity__: the estimated quantity per product. | + | **Product Name and Product Number** |
- | __Product Grouping__: If a product | + | * Scope: Displays |
+ | * Cross-Contract Integration: | ||
+ | * Group Expansion: When products | ||
- | __Company Grouping__: If the distributor is a company grouping, the estimated volume will display as the value entered on the contract divided by the count of companies in the grouping. | + | **Unit |
- | __Both Product Grouping and Company Grouping__: If the distributor is a company grouping and there are product | + | * Function: Specifies standardized measurement units applicable to each product |
+ | ________________________________________ | ||
- | __This Contract Estimated Spend__: | + | **Financial Analysis and Calculation Fields** |
- | __Other | + | **This Contract Deviated Rate** |
+ | |||
+ | * Function: Displays standardized per-unit rate for distributor-mediated contract products | ||
+ | * Rate Standardization: | ||
+ | * Pricing Hierarchy: For distributor contracts utilizing percentage or fixed pricing, rates are calculated using prioritized data sources (default pricing, historical sales data, or company/ | ||
+ | |||
+ | **This Contract Estimated Quantity** | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Base Function: Projected volume allocation per product line | ||
+ | * Allocation Methodologies | ||
+ | |||
+ | Product Grouping Distribution: | ||
+ | - Logic: Contract volume divided proportionally among constituent products | ||
+ | - Example: 100-unit grouping ÷ 4 products = 25 units per individual product line | ||
+ | |||
+ | Company Grouping Distribution: | ||
+ | * Logic: Contract volume allocated equally across member distributor companies | ||
+ | * Application: | ||
+ | |||
+ | Combined Grouping Distribution: | ||
+ | * Logic: Contract volume divided by both company count and product count for precise proportional allocation | ||
+ | * Complexity Management: Handles multi-dimensional grouping scenarios with mathematical precision | ||
+ | |||
+ | This Contract Estimated Spend | ||
+ | * Formula: Deviated Rate × Estimated Quantity | ||
+ | * Purpose: Provides projected financial commitment per product line through distributor channels | ||
+ | ________________________________________ | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Comparative Contract Analysis** | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Other | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Function: Aggregated deviated | ||
+ | * Rate Conversion: Standardizes | ||
+ | * Interactive Documentation: | ||
+ | * Strategic Value: Enables comprehensive rate comparison and optimization analysis across multiple distributor relationships | ||
{{: | {{: | ||
- | __Total | + | **Total |
+ | |||
+ | * Calculation: Aggregate | ||
+ | * Purpose: Provides comprehensive rate analysis across all concurrent distributor-mediated contractual obligations | ||
+ | * Strategic Application: | ||
+ | * Business Value: Facilitates distributor relationship optimization and rate competitiveness analysis | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Total Stacked Estimated Spend** | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Formula: This Contract Estimated Quantity × Total Stacked Deviated Rate | ||
+ | * Financial Significance: | ||
+ | * Risk Assessment: Quantifies total financial commitment potential when multiple distributor contracts exist simultaneously | ||
+ | * Budget Planning: Enables comprehensive distributor-specific budget allocation and financial forecasting | ||
+ | * Distribution Strategy: Supports informed decision-making regarding distributor partnership investments and resource allocation | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Total Claim Amount** | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Function: Displays aggregate disbursements processed to the specific distributor for the designated SKU under current contract version | ||
+ | * Transaction Scope: Historical payment records and processed distributor claims | ||
+ | * Interactive Documentation: | ||
+ | * Performance Analytics: Enables comparison between projected distributor spend and actual financial performance | ||
+ | * Distributor Management: Maintains detailed audit trail of all financial transactions within distributor partnerships | ||
+ | * Compliance Tracking: Supports distributor payment verification and contract performance monitoring | ||
- | __Total Stacked Estimated Spend__: formula of This Contract Estimated Quantity | + | **Strategic Benefits:** These metrics collectively provide stakeholders with comprehensive visibility into distributor-specific financial performance, |
- | __Total Claim Amount__: displays a sum of dollars on how much has been paid out to the distributor and sku for this contract version. | ||
{{: | {{: | ||
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Lumpsums which were on the contract when the claim was paid, but the contract was amended and that lumpsum is no longer defined on the current version of the contract. | Lumpsums which were on the contract when the claim was paid, but the contract was amended and that lumpsum is no longer defined on the current version of the contract. | ||
- | {{:pasted:20170823-112545.png}} | + | {{:pasted:20240806-175255.png}} |
__Lumpsum Description and Lumpsum Code__: displays the lumpsum information for lumpsums which are not defined on the contract. | __Lumpsum Description and Lumpsum Code__: displays the lumpsum information for lumpsums which are not defined on the contract. | ||
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Then select an export type and decide to either show (un-check) or hide (check) the Claimant Info and click the Generate report. | Then select an export type and decide to either show (un-check) or hide (check) the Claimant Info and click the Generate report. | ||
- | {{: | + | {{: |
__Excel Export__: The export displays a sheet per tab. The export will limit the data if there are any filters on any of the columns so be sure to clear filters prior to opening the export. | __Excel Export__: The export displays a sheet per tab. The export will limit the data if there are any filters on any of the columns so be sure to clear filters prior to opening the export. |